New auto insurance policies per year in 2030

  • Posted by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
Background information on these 2 issues and their relationship in our platform
  • Drag the blue bars below to see how our platform changes odds for one issue when you change odds for the other
  • Compare your odds to other community members
  • Post to share your reasons and join the debate on these issues and others
CommunityPlatform
Reset
Odds
100%75%50%25%0%

2021 expectation for 2030 online penetration of auto insurance sales

Odds
100%75%50%25%0%

New auto insurance policies per year in 2030

0
0 Comments
0
0 Comments

Grubhub revenue in 2025

  • Posted by Arin Nazarian, Bullet Point Network
Background information on these 2 issues and their relationship in our platform
  • Drag the blue bars below to see how our platform changes odds for one issue when you change odds for the other
  • Compare your odds to other community members
  • Post to share your reasons and join the debate on these issues and others
CommunityPlatform
Reset
Odds
100%75%50%25%0%

Restaurant delivery market size in 2025

Odds
100%75%50%25%0%

Grubhub revenue in 2025

1
0 Comments
1
0 Comments

Value of Connecting Stories to Statistics

  • Authored and posted by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
If you want to improve the odds for the future valuation multiples of your company and your investments, you may want to look through our illustration of how we can all do so by Connecting Stories to Statistics in 3 Steps. Here we illustrate Step 1 for a future event involving a fictitious company that we call virtualgoods.shop. Any resemblance to actual companies, living or dead, or actual events is purely coincidental . . .
1
0 Comments
Leave comment
1
0 Comments
Leave comment

  • Commented by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
Thanks Joe.  That's a good article that you linked to.
1
Influenced by
0 Replies
Reply
1
Influenced by
0 Comments
Leave comment

VGS Peak Revenue

  • Posted by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
Background information on these 2 issues and their relationship in our platform
  • Drag the blue bars below to see how our platform changes odds for one issue when you change odds for the other
  • Compare your odds to other community members
  • Post to share your reasons and join the debate on these issues and others
CommunityPlatform
Reset
Odds
100%75%50%25%0%

virtualgoods.shop Value Proposition for AE, Inc. Sports Videogames

Odds
100%75%50%25%0%

VGS peak annual revenue total and at horizon 12/31/2050

0
0 Comments
0
0 Comments

Chronic GERD patient population in US and at horizon 12/31/2050

  • Posted by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
  • Drag the blue bars below to see how our platform changes odds for one issue when you change odds for the other
  • Compare your odds to other community members
  • Post to share your reasons and join the debate on these issues and others
CommunityPlatform
Reset
Odds
100%75%50%25%0%

Chronic GERD patient population in US and at horizon 12/31/2050

Odds
100%75%50%25%0%

Chronic GERD market size in US and at horizon 12/31/2050

0
0 Comments
0
0 Comments

Enterprise data integration software revenue in 2022 and at horizon 12/31/2050

  • Posted by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
  • Drag the blue bars below to see how our platform changes odds for one issue when you change odds for the other
  • Compare your odds to other community members
  • Post to share your reasons and join the debate on these issues and others
CommunityPlatform
Reset
Odds
100%75%50%25%0%

Merger deal value in 2022 and at horizon 12/31/2050

Odds
100%75%50%25%0%

Enterprise data integration software revenue in 2022 and at horizon 12/31/2050

0
0 Comments
0
0 Comments

Type of Brexit in 2019

  • Posted by Joe Price, Bullet Point Network, LP

After Parliament rejected Theresa May's plan with an overwhelming 432-202 vote, the odds of Current-Deal Brexit are virtually none.  I think the odds are now evenly split between a second referendum and a softer Brexit with even odds that the Revised-Deal Brexit fails resulting in No-Deal Brexit.  Here is a good visualisation of possible scenarios: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/15/world/europe/may-brexit-vote-fail.html  
0
1 Comments
Leave comment
0
1 Comments
Leave comment

Type of Brexit in 2019

  • Posted by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
After today's vote, current-deal Brexit odds are vanishingly small.  Here's an article on the vote:  https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46886728
0
0 Comments
Leave comment
0
0 Comments
Leave comment

Type of Brexit in 2019

  • Posted by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
Background information on these 2 issues and their relationship in our platform
  • Drag the blue bars below to see how our platform changes odds for one issue when you change odds for the other
  • Compare your odds to other community members
  • Post to share your reasons and join the debate on these issues and others
CommunityPlatform
Reset
Odds
100%75%50%25%0%

Type of Brexit in 2019

Odds
100%75%50%25%0%

London warehouse USD price change in 2019

0
2 Comments
0
2 Comments

Value of Connecting Stories to Statistics

  • Authored on Sep 18, 2018 by Stephen Blyth, Harvard University
  • Posted on Dec 19, 2018 by Peter Moore, Bullet Point Network, L.P.
The lesson for finance is stark. If our dataset, however large, is in a minimal but systematic way not representative of the population, big data does not preclude big problems. Those who revert to a proceduralist approach of throwing complex algorithms and large datasets at challenging questions are particularly vulnerable. Who can tell how non-representative our data today is in terms of representing the future? Yes, we may never again assume house prices cannot fall simultaneously in every state, but we do not know what other assumptions are implicitly being made. More than ever, judgment — necessarily subjective and based on experience — will play a significant role in moderating over-reliance on and misuse of quantitative models. The judgment to question even the most successful of algorithms, and to retain humility in the face of irreducible uncertainty, may prove the difference between financial stability and the “horrific damage” of another crisis.
0
0 Comments
Leave comment
0
0 Comments
Leave comment