Research

Due to the pandemic, connecting with medical students for training sessions has become difficult, yielding opportunity for VR trainings.

View above about Model Issue: Years to peak by company, market, and value prop and org HVR, Inc. and improvement over alternatives Material improvement and for customer Broader market

Research Category: TAM and Industry Trends for HVR, Inc.
  • Posted and Supporting Evidence below from Dec 2, 2020 by Kaan Erturk
"With the pandemic, the need for alternative training will become all the more valuable because medical students cannot always participate in bedside rounds or assist in surgeries and learn from real-live scenarios how to diagnose critically-ill patients and intervene in a variety of medical situations."
Research

ADT residential site count was steady at 5.8M sites in at 9/30/2020

View above about Model Issue: Entered seats by company, market, and quarter and org ADT Inc. and for quarter ending 09/30/2020 and for customer Narrow market

Research Category: Actual Results and Budget for ADT Inc.
Here is a snapshot of business by customer type and unit count.
Research

Some barriers to the adoption of healthcare VR products are the limited availability and high cost of VR headsets, and limited access to high bandwith networks

View above about Model Issue: Years to peak if HVR is 'One of Many' in OR High Risk

Research Category: Product Features and Roadmap for HVR, Inc.
Perhaps the biggest barrier relates to accessibility. Estimates suggest that there are approximately 26 million VR headsets owned globally, but many of these may not be suitable for medical research.
Research

ADT could capture a large portion of this market as a leading player in smart home security

View above about Research Category: TAM and Industry Trends for ADT Inc.

The global smart home security cameras market size is anticipated to reach USD 11.89 billion by 2027, according to a new report by Grand View Research, Inc., expanding at a CAGR of 15.7% over the forecast period.
Research

Dropbox’s roll-out of Spaces 2.0 reduces odds of material differentiation for BOX with Current Registered Users

View above about Model Issue: Peak market share of Current Registered Users if Box is One of a Few Alternatives for Them

Last year, Dropbox (NASDAQ: DBX) launched the Dropbox Spaces tool, which brought together cloud content and local files to turn folders into “collaborative workspaces”. Dropbox is now rolling out Spaces 2.0, which updates the tool to become a standalone project management product geared toward remote workers. The company is planning on targeting the product to larger enterprises, increasing competition for BOX and other cloud content management companies within this market. Spaces 2.0 is currently in private beta.
Research

ADT could become materially better than competitors in the residential market as they join other key players in the z-wave alliance

View above about Model Issue: Odds that ADT is a material improvement for its current residential customers

The Z-Wave Alliance announced that ADT (NYSE: ADT), a leading provider of security, automation, and smart home solutions serving consumers and businesses, has joined the Z-Wave Alliance as a new Principal Member, granting them a seat on the Board of Directors....As the newest Principal Member of the Z-Wave Alliance, ADT joins other industry leaders including Alarm.com, Assa Abloy, Leedarson, Ring, Silicon Labs, StratIS, and Qolsys in advancing Z-Wave technology.
Research

The VLSFO-HSFO spread fell to record lows in October, catalyzed by strong demand for HSFO in Asia

View above about Model Issue: Odds that LiqTech is materially better than alternatives

The VLSFO-HSFO spread, also known as the "scrubber spread", fell to a record low of $44.21/t on 29 October. The spread reached a record high of $370.50/t on 2 January as the market adjusted to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulphur cap and VLSFO supply tightened, but fell sharply as the Covid-19 pandemic emerged. The spread has averaged $65.21/t over the past six months. "Availability of HSFO remains scarce and this lack of liquidity seems to be driving the narrowing of the spread, as storage and barging costs rise for HSFO", one broker said. HSFO cargo supplies have been tightening as refineries cut runs to accommodate weak demand for jet fuel, which has also curtailed production of residual fuels. There is also strong demand for HSFO in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia, where it is used in power generation. More HSFO cargoes have also been exported from Singapore to China to meet an increase in Chinese demand as more retrofitted vessels come on the market.
Research

Shipowners have increasingly turned to LNG to meet tightening environmental requirements, but ROIs on scrubbers may still be higher due to the IMO's emissions targets

View above about Model Issue: Odds that LiqTech is materially better than alternatives

James Waddell, senior global gas analyst at Energy Aspects, said LNG bunkering demand – by all vessel types – could reach nearly 7m tonnes/year (9.52bcm) by 2025. This compared with demand last year of around 1.2m tonnes/year and excluded so-called boil-off gas consumption by LNG carriers. But he noted the rollout of further LNG-fuelled vessels over the coming years was “problematic” due to increasingly strict IMO emissions targets. “If they are not [ordered] by 2025, they may not be used for the final years of their [20-30-year] operational lives,” Waddell said. This meant shipowners may not make a return on their investments. Kjell Eikland, director of Oslo-based Eikland Energy, said a 2025 demand estimate of 7m tonnes/year was “very optimistic”. “The bunker supply fleet active and on order does not make this possible yet,” he said. LNG is one of three IMO 2020-compliant options available to shipowners, with the other two options being high-sulphur fuel oil with “scrubbers” or a compliant oil-based fuel, such as very low-sulphur fuel oil and marine gasoil. Scrubbers – or “exhaust gas cleaning systems” – can be retrofitted to vessels and “clean” the emissions before they are released into the atmosphere.
Research

Legg Mason's Bill Miller used scenario analysis to make a fortune buying Amazon early as a "value investment" despite its high P/E

View above about Model Issue: Value of Quantifying Stories in Scenarios

The problem that most people have with trying to value technology companies is that the picture of the future is so uncertain. So you have to think about several outcomes rather than just one. This can create greater variance in the potential future payoff from a long-term investment. However, if you really dig into the key aspects of the company you're looking at--the potential size of the market, its theoretical profitability, its competitive position--you can understand exactly what is driving the differences between one scenario and another, and that will reduce your uncertainty level. We still create cash flow valuations, but we often use several target values rather than a single one.
Research

Marine scrubber ROIs likely to underperform as O&G prices remain low, clean fuel becomes more widely available

View above about Model Issue: Odds that Ship Owners Opt Not to Install Marine Scrubbers vs. Using VLSFO fuel.

Shipowners have invested billions of dollars retrofitting vessels with sulfur trapping exhaust systems to abide by stricter clean air rules, but their investment may not pay off as oil prices stay low and cleaner fuels become more available.The systems, called scrubbers, allow ships to continue burning the heavy oil known as bunker fuel that has long powered the world’s oceangoing vessels. The fuel is cheaper than low-sulfur fuel blends that hit the market at the start of the year, when ships were mandated to cut their sulfur emissions by more than 80%. That order is part of the wider plan the International Maritime Organization, the global marine regulator, is rolling out to cut overall ship pollution by half over the next 30 years. The requirement presented a stark financial choice for shipowners, so many have bought scrubbers at a cost of between $2 million and $4 million each rather than pay for low-sulfur, high-cost conventional fuel. But there is a catch. Scrubbers make financial sense if the price spread between heavy oil and the cleaner fuels is more than $100 per ton. With oil prices at historic lows on falling demand from the Covid-19 pandemic and the world oversupplied with crude, the difference is now hovering at around $60 per ton.
Research

Secular shift from midtier gym memberships to virtual fitness offerings leaves fewer brick-and-mortar alternatives for PLNT

View above about Model Issue: Our Odds that Planet Fitness is One of a Few Alternatives for its Current Members

If consumers combine Peloton’s at-home instruction with a low-cost gym membership, Planet Fitness could actually stand out, according to Golding. “Enter Planet Fitness—with its almost 2,100 stores and Black Card reciprocity, and with a 50% gym membership rate across Peloton subscribers as an example across in-home platforms, we think Planet Fitness is poised to become the de facto bricks-and-mortar gym for many looking to diversify their fitness offerings,” Golding wrote. “And of course, reciprocity comes by virtue of being open and well capitalized.” Pointing to industrywide struggles, Golding thinks Planet Fitness can benefit from consolidation.
Research

If IMO imposes a carbon tax on ships, some may convert to LNG and not need scrubbers

View above about Model Issue: LiqTech Marine Scrubber Market Size

The year 2020 has been one of unexpected change and it has been no different for the maritime space . . . The most recent wave of change came in the form of a proposal to the IMO from Trafigura introducing a carbon levy of between $250 per metric ton (/mt) and $300/mt of CO2 equivalent on shipping fuels . . . In 2019, there were about 7,400 crude oil tankers in use globally, of which only about 175 of them are LNG-fueled vessels (just under 2.5%). The Trafigura proposal would impact 97% of the oil tanker fleet and give any owners or charters of LNG-fueled vessels a significant competitive advantage in the market.
Research

While the word "Unlikely" means different probabilities to different people, they may not be different enough to overlap with "Probably"

View above about Model Issue: Value of Quantifying Stories in Scenarios

What kind of probability are people talking about when they say something is "highly likely" or has "almost no chance"? The chart below, created by Reddit user zonination, visualizes the responses of 46 other Reddit users to "What probability would you assign to the phase: " for various statements of probability.