## VGS value proposition for AE sports videogames vs. VGS peak annual revenue

virtualgoods.shop's peak revenue may depend heavily on its value proposition in its first target market, especially since that may hint heavily at its potential value proposition in a series of broader markets into which it could grow over time.

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### VGS value proposition for AE sports videogames

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### VGS peak annual revenue

For a company like the fictitious virtualgoods.shop, peak revenue may depend heavily on its value proposition in its first target market, especially since that may hint heavily at its potential value proposition in a series of broader markets into which it could grow over time. The BPN Platform supports debate on the odds of different degrees of differentiation and of eventual peak revenue. To try out that debate by asserting your own odds for either, drag the bars in one of the charts below, note the change in the other chart, and click "Post Your Own Views" to share your belief and your reasons for it. To learn more about this the BPN Platform & Service via this fictitious company example, click https://bit.ly/2nmypyP

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## NGM282 Franchise Value

By Quantifying this drug franchise's Story in Statistics using the BPN Platform, I have amplified this analysis to anticipate the odds of different stock market values for NGM282 at different future horizons.

My initiation report described in detail what may drive NGM282's odds of FDA approval and when events might change these odds

## Odds Expected by Investors at Year-End 2020 for FDA Approval in F3 NASH vs. NGM282 Franchise Value

By Quantifying this Story in Scenarios using the BPN Platform, I have quantified the odds that investors change their odds of approval over any future horizon, such as year-end 2020. I also quantified how such changes may change the upside vs. downside for NGM282's stock market value. Drag the bars in one of the charts below to change the odds to what you believe based on your expertise, note the change in the other chart, and click "Post Your Own Views" to share your belief and your reasons for it.

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### Odds Expected by Investors at Year-End 2020 for FDA Approval in F3 NASH

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## NGM282 Franchise Value

My initiation report also described in detail what may drive NGM282's value if approved, such as that it may be prescribed to 2-3x the number of patients who are currently diagnosed with the specific liver disease that it treats, which is termed NASH, because advances in diagnosis methods may enable growth from 20% of people with NASH being diagnosed to 60% of them being diagnosed.

## Odds Expected by Investors at Year-End 2020 for Peak Diagnosis Rate of F3 NASH vs. NGM282 Franchise Value

I have quantified the odds that investors change their odds of different peaks for NASH diagnosis rates between NGM282 approval and loss of exclusivity. I also quantified the impact of that on the upside vs. downside for NGM282's stock market value. Drag the bars in one of the charts below to change the odds to what you believe based on your expertise, note the change in the other chart, and click "Post Your Own Views" to share your belief and your reasons for it.

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### Odds Expected by Investors at Year-End 2020 for Peak Diagnosis Rate of F3 NASH

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### NGM282 Franchise Value

## NGM282 Franchise Value

By Quantifying this Story in Scenarios using the BPN Platform, I have amplified my initiation report's forecast spreadsheet into 100 versions, each representing a case for stock market value at year-end 2020 based on a combination of year-end 2020 market expectations for the drivers described in my initiation report, and also based on a case for year-end 2020 capital market conditions. The odds of these combinations are based on my judgments for the odds of these fundamental drivers, supported by research evidence attached to each driver in the BPN Platform. The odds for capital market conditions leverage BPN's models based on data plus its team's decades of experience at senior levels in capital markets, including co-heading equity products at Goldman Sachs and heading public equities at Harvard's endowment. In the table below, explore the odds of different year-end 2020 market values by sliding the dot at the top to look at some of the 100 combinations driving that market value.

## SNAP Equity price

By Quantifying Stories in Statistics using the BPN Platform, I have amplified my analysis of Daily Active Users (DAUs), Minutes of Use (MOU), and Ads per Hour of Use (Add Load), along with other drivers of SNAP Equity, to anticipate the odds of different share prices at numerous future horizons.

## Odds expected by investors at year-end 2021 for long-term peak average ads per user per hour vs. SNAP Equity price

By Quantifying Snap's monetization Story in Scenarios, we can explore how much the odds of different share prices at year-end 2021 may depend on the odds expected by investors at year-end 2021 for eventual peak add load. Drag the blue bars in the left chart below to assert your odds for what investors may expect at year-end 2021, notice the changes in the right chart, and drag that right chart's blue bars to assert your odds for the year-end 2021 stock price. Too bearish? Share your view!

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### Odds expected by investors at year-end 2021 for long-term peak average ads per user per hour

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## SNAP Equity price

By Quantifying the Snap share price story in Scenarios, I produced 100 realistic combinations of the short list of the stock's key drivers in the eyes of investors, in turn producing 100 scenarios for future expectations for financial results and valuation of the stock. Below is 1 scenario for expectations and valuation at year-end 2021. Drag the dot at the bottom to explore any of the other 99 scenarios. If reading on a smartphone, flip to landscape mode first.

## Odds expected by investors at year-end 2021 for long-term peak average ads per user per hour vs. Odds expected by investors at year-end 2021 for long-term peak minutes of use per day

By producing logical combinations of drivers rather than a statistical simulation, we can note when some drivers might counteract others, such as when increasing ad load may reduce the odds of increasing minutes of use. Can Snap really make its ads a plus rather than a negative for its users as it increases efforts to monetize them? Drag the blue bars below to assert your odds for either, and note how changing the odds in one chart changes the odds in the other, suggesting that tradeoff.

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### Odds expected by investors at year-end 2021 for long-term peak average ads per user per hour

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### Odds expected by investors at year-end 2021 for long-term peak minutes of use per day

## LiqTech Stock Price

By Quantifying Stories in Statistics using the BPN Platform, I have amplified my analysis of regulatory catalysts, along with other drivers of LIQT Equity, to anticipate the odds of stock price at numerous future horizons.

## Market Expectation at Year-End 2020 for IMO2020 Enforcement vs. LiqTech Stock Price

By Quantifying this Story in Scenarios using the BPN Platform, I have quantified the odds that investors change their odds for the IMO2020 enforcement regulatory catalyst by any future horizon, such as year-end 2020. I also quantified how such changes may change the upside vs. downside for the price of LIQT Equity. Drag the bars in one of the charts below to change the odds to what you believe based on your expertise, note the change in the other chart, and click "Post Your Own Views" to share your belief and your reasons for it.

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### Market Expectation at Year-End 2020 for IMO2020 Enforcement

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## LiqTech Stock Price

I have amplified my forecast spreadsheet into 100 versions, each representing a case for stock market value at year-end 2020 based on a combination of year-end 2020 market expectations for the key drivers of value, and also based on a case for year-end 2020 capital market conditions. The odds of these combinations are based on my judgments for the odds of these fundamental drivers, supported by research evidence attached to each driver in the BPN Platform. The odds for capital market conditions leverage BPN's models based on data plus its team's decades of experience at senior levels in capital markets, including co-heading equity products at Goldman Sachs and heading public equities at Harvard's endowment. In the table below, explore the odds of different year-end 2020 market values by sliding the dot at the top to look at some of the 100 combinations driving that market value , including combinations where the market places different odds for that IMO 2020 Enforcement catalyst that is likely to play out in 2020.

## Market Expectation at Year-End 2021 for Open Ocean Wastewater Discharge Ban vs. LiqTech Stock Price

I have quantified the odds that investors change their odds for the Open Ocean Wastewater Discharge Ban regulatory catalyst by year-end 2021. I also quantified how such changes may change the upside vs. downside for the price of LIQT Equity by year-end 2021. Drag the bars in one of the charts below to change the odds to what you believe based on your expertise, note the change in the other chart, and click "Post Your Own Views" to share your belief and your reasons for it.

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### Market Expectation at Year-End 2021 for Open Ocean Wastewater Discharge Ban

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## Market Expectation at Year-End 2021 for Marine NOx Regulation vs. LiqTech Stock Price

I also quantified the odds that investors change their odds for the Marine NOx Regulation catalyst by year-end 2021. I also quantified how such changes may change the upside vs. downside for the price of LIQT Equity by year-end 2021. Drag the bars in one of the charts below to change the odds to what you believe based on your expertise, note the change in the other chart, and click "Post Your Own Views" to share your belief and your reasons for it.

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### Market Expectation at Year-End 2021 for Marine NOx Regulation

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## LiqTech Stock Price

By Quantifying this Story in Scenarios using the BPN Platform, I amplified my forecast spreadsheet into 100 versions also at that later horizon of year-end 2021. In the table below, explore the odds of different year-end 2021 market values by sliding the dot at the top to look at some of the 100 combinations driving that market, including combinations where the market places different odds for these regulatory catalysts that may play in 2021 or later, like the Open Ocean Discharge Ban and the Marine NOx Regulation.

Now that we have Quantified these regulation Stories in Scenarios, we can back up to explore how much the LIQT Equity Price at year-end 2020 & 2021 might depend on the regulation odds that the marginal investor expects at those times. Our judgments, supported by research attached in the BPN Platform, suggest that at year-end 2020, IMO2020 Enforcement could tank the stock in an outlier case, while investor expectations for the other 2 regulations are very unlikely to move materially that early. But by year-end 2021, the Marine Wastewater Discharge Regulation could became definitive, either Yes or No, and so could move the stock up or down, and while the NOx regulation will not be definitive even by year-2021, investors could increase or decrease their expected odds for it, and that alone could be a bigger stock price driver than anything else on this page. Below, there are 100 dots each representing 1 out of 100 cases with equal odds. Click a dot to see the combination of expectations about the 3 regulations that influence the stock price in that case, across both horizons.