My initiation report illustrated that whenever the stock market agrees with my estimate of the odds of FDA approval for liver disease drug NGM282, it may value that drug franchise at $1.6B based on the typical biotech investor's "probability-adjusted NPV' with a potential $2.8B value if approved by the FDA times a 58% odds of approval.
By Quantifying this drug franchise's Story in Statistics using the BPN Platform, I have amplified this analysis to anticipate the odds of different stock market values for NGM282 at different future horizons.
My initiation report described in detail what may drive NGM282's odds of FDA approval and when events might change these odds
By Quantifying this Story in Scenarios using the BPN Platform, I have quantified the odds that investors change their odds of approval over any future horizon, such as year-end 2020. I also quantified how such changes may change the upside vs. downside for NGM282's stock market value. Drag the bars in one of the charts below to change the odds to what you believe based on your expertise, note the change in the other chart, and click "Post Your Own Views" to share your belief and your reasons for it.
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Odds Expected by Investors at Year-End 2020 for FDA Approval in F3 NASH
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NGM282 Franchise Value
My initiation report also described in detail what may drive NGM282's value if approved, such as that it may be prescribed to 2-3x the number of patients who are currently diagnosed with the specific liver disease that it treats, which is termed NASH, because advances in diagnosis methods may enable growth from 20% of people with NASH being diagnosed to 60% of them being diagnosed.
By Quantifying this Story in Scenarios using the BPN Platform, I have amplified my initiation report's forecast spreadsheet into 100 versions, each representing a case for stock market value at year-end 2020 based on a combination of year-end 2020 market expectations for the drivers described in my initiation report, and also based on a case for year-end 2020 capital market conditions. The odds of these combinations are based on my judgments for the odds of these fundamental drivers, supported by research evidence attached to each driver in the BPN Platform. The odds for capital market conditions leverage BPN's models based on data plus its team's decades of experience at senior levels in capital markets, including co-heading equity products at Goldman Sachs and heading public equities at Harvard's endowment. In the table below, explore the odds of different year-end 2020 market values by sliding the dot at the top to look at some of the 100 combinations driving that market value.